5 min. read
Last updated Jun 16, 2025
Key takeaways
SAF policy frameworks are emerging outside the EU and UK. Countries across Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East are advancing SAF mandates and targets.
These SAF markets are generating significant SAF demand. Emerging markets will collectively generate millions of tons of demand by 2030, rivaling European SAF markets.
SAF producers need global visibility to stay competitive. Focusing solely on transatlantic markets may leave untapped value on the table. Monitoring global SAF policy developments enables producers to diversify demand and expand their commercial pipeline.
Global SAF markets are ready for takeoff
Policy momentum for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is no longer concentrated in the US, EU, and UK. Across Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East, governments are implementing SAF blending mandates and targets on a scale that could soon rival, or even exceed, transatlantic demand.
This signals a critical turning point. As global aviation faces mounting pressure to decarbonize, new SAF markets are laying the regulatory groundwork for scaled deployment. Producers and investors who track these shifts, and act early, can secure strategic footholds, shape in-country partnerships, and diversify their demand base before supply chains lock in.
To date, SAF deployment has been anchored by strong regulatory drivers in the EU and UK along with market incentives in the US. Now, other regions are following suit with policies that could reshape the global SAF landscape.
Established markets: EU and UK SAF mandates set the baseline
The EU and UK SAF mandates are the most advanced and enforceable SAF blending mandates worldwide. The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation requires a 6% SAF blend by 2030, including a 0.7% e-SAF¹ sub-target, alongside anti-tankering rules to cut emissions. With restrictions on hydrogenated esters and fatty acids (HEFA)² SAF, the UK goes further, mandating a 9.5% blend by 2030 and a 0.5% Power-to-Liquid (PtL)³ fuel sub-mandate.
SAF Mandates in the EU and UK | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Region | Mandate | Sub-targets | Description |
EU | 6% SAF by 2030 | 0.7% e-SAF | Anti-tankering rules to reduce unnecessary fuel carriage |
UK | 9.5% SAF by 2030 | 0.5% PtL | Restrictions on HEFA to encourage use of advanced feedstocks |
Emerging markets: policy momentum is building outside of the EU and UK
Countries across Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East are introducing blending mandates, emissions-reduction targets, and national SAF roadmaps. While policies vary in scope and maturity, many now include clear timelines, enforcement frameworks, or formal roadmaps that signal real market potential.
Asia-Pacific: SAF mandates gaining momentum
China introduced a 50,000 ton target by 2025 in its 14th Five-Year Plan. Industry leaders expect a 5% SAF mandate by 2030, though it has not yet been announced.
Japan is finalizing a 10% SAF mandate by 2030, covering all departing flights and fuel suppliers, with a minimum 50% lifecycle GHG reduction.
South Korea is considering a 1% mandate by 2027 aligned with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) goals, with further support through incentives and voluntary use programs.
India targets 1% SAF for international flights in 2027, rising to 2% in 2028 and possibly 5% by 2030.
Indonesia proposes a 1% blend by 2027, increasing to 2.5% by 2030, under a formal SAF roadmap.
Malaysia plans a SAF mandate starting at 1% in 2027, scaling to 47% by 2050, though enforcement details are still under consultation.
Singapore has a confirmed 1% target by 2026, with the potential to increase to 3–5% by 2030 pending global SAF developments.
Thailand has set non-binding targets of 1% by 2026, 1-2% by 2030, and up to 8% by 2036, supported by investment incentives.
The Philippines is drafting a SAF roadmap, with readiness assessments and feedstock research underway.
Australia and New Zealand have no binding mandates but are supporting SAF through research, feasibility studies, and public-private initiatives. Australia’s Jet Zero Council has set a non-binding 10% SAF goal by 2030.
Latin America: Binding policies taking shape
Brazil enacted a binding SAF policy in 2024 requiring 1% annual GHG reductions from domestic aviation beginning in 2027, 3% by 2030, and 10% by 2037.
Chile launched a SAF roadmap targeting 50% SAF use by 2050, prioritizing domestic PtL production and leveraging green hydrogen potential.
Middle East: Early targets and pilot projects
UAE set a voluntary 1% SAF target by 2031 and aims to produce 700 million liters of SAF annually by 2030. Early pilot projects are underway, including PtL and co-processing facilities.
Turkey has proposed a 1% blend by 2025, increasing to 5% by 2030 for international flights.
Saudi Arabia and Oman are exploring SAF policies, but no mandates or targets have been announced to date.
SAF mandates and targets in Asia Pacific, Latin American, and Middle East countries | ||
|---|---|---|
Country | Target or mandate* | Description |
Approved/confirmed** | ||
Mandate | 1% GHG reduction in 2027, 3% by 2030, 10% by 2037 (domestic flights) | |
Target | 1% by 2026, 3-5% by 2030 non-binding target | |
Proposed*** | ||
Mandate | 10% by 2030 with 50% GHG savings | |
Mandate | 1% by 2027, 47% by 2050 | |
Mandate | 1% in 2025, 5% by 2030 (international flights) | |
Mandate | 1% by 2027, 2.5% by 2030, 50% by 2060 | |
Target | 1% in 2027, 2% in 2028, 5% in 2030 non-binding target (international flights) | |
Mandate | 1% by 2027 (international flights) | |
Preliminary or informal target**** | ||
Target/Mandate | 50,000 tonnes SAF by 2025; industry stakeholders are anticipating a mandate of 5% by 2030 | |
Target | 50% by 2050 non-binding target | |
Target | ≥10% by 2030 non-binding target | |
Target | 1% by 2026, 1-2% by 2030, 8% by 2036 non-binding target | |
Target | 1% by 2031 voluntary target | |
Under development***** | ||
- | No mandate/target; SAF policy development ongoing | |
- | No mandate/target; SAF roadmap being drafted | |
- | No mandate/target; exploring SAF policy | |
- | No mandate/target; under discussion in emissions reduction planning | |
* Mandate: a legally binding obligation that compels fuel suppliers and/or airlines to achieve a specified SAF blend or emissions-reduction level, with enforcement mechanisms and penalties for non-compliance; Target: a non-binding, aspirational goal set by policymakers to signal desired SAF uptake; it guides industry planning but carries no legal enforcement or penalties if unmet. ** Approved/confirmed: a legally adopted mandate or finalized government target with a clear start date and specific SAF requirements. Includes binding obligations or formally announced targets that are considered official policy. *** Proposed: a mandate or target that has been publicly released in draft form or is undergoing formal consultation but has not yet been legally enacted or finalized. **** Preliminary or informal target: a non-binding, strategic goal announced by a government agency or planning body, often used to guide investment and signal intent, but not yet officially adopted. ***** Under development: no specific SAF mandate or target exists yet, but policy design is underway; this includes early-stage efforts such as feasibility studies, roadmap drafting, or regulatory framework planning. | ||
Top 3 strategic opportunities for SAF producers and investors
To capitalize on growing global demand, SAF producers need more than technical readiness: they need visibility into global policy landscapes and a strategy for scaling into new markets.
Here’s how producers can turn these market trends into opportunities:
1. Global policy literacy is now a competitive advantage
With new SAF mandates and targets emerging across multiple continents, understanding timelines and compliance mechanisms is essential. Producers that track these developments closely will be best positioned to secure early offtake agreements and shape market entry strategies aligned with local regulations.
2. A broader base of demand de-risks development
Relying solely on European SAF markets increases exposure to policy delays and regional market saturation. Diversifying across geographies like Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East can reduce project risk and unlock a more resilient commercial pipeline.
3. Local partnerships and certification planning are critical
As countries move toward implementation, they are developing localized frameworks for emissions accounting, sustainability standards, and certification pathways. Early engagement with regulators, airports, and airlines can streamline market access and ensure compliance readiness.
SAF demand – how global mandates stack up to the EU and UK
Several emerging markets are generating demand that will rival that of the EU and UK. By 2030, countries with established or proposed SAF mandates and targets, including the EU and UK, are expected to generate nearly 10 million metric tons (Mt) of SAF demand. Of this, about 3.24 Mt arises from binding mandates outside of the EU and UK, while 2.6 Mt reflects global non-binding targets.
Most of these mandates remain in the early stages of development and are expected to ramp up as SAF production capacity becomes available. Demand for SAF through mandates and targets outside Europe is significant, creating valuable opportunities for producers who engage early in these developing markets.
Global SAF markets are reaching new heights – don’t miss the flight
As SAF mandates gain momentum beyond the EU and UK, producers and investors have an opportunity to align early with the next wave of demand. SAF markets across Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East are signaling real intent through binding policies; demand for SAF from mandates outside of the EU and UK markets is now comparable to, and growing alongside, demand within European markets.
There is significant potential for SAF producers to establish themselves in these emerging SAF markets as mandates develop. Producers who engage now by building partnerships, understanding regulatory pathways, and preparing for compliance can position themselves ahead of the curve in a rapidly globalizing SAF landscape.
Need support developing a SAF market strategy?
Carbon Direct’s climate scientists and policy experts work with SAF producers to identify, evaluate, and enter emerging markets with confidence.
Learn more about how we can support your path to compliance and competitive advantage.
¹ The e-SAF terminology refers to “synthetic aviation fuels”, which includes renewable fuels of non-biological origin as defined in EU RED. This category includes PtL fuels (source).
² HEFA SAF is a type of fuel produced by refining oils, fats, and waste oils through hydroprocessing. It is currently the predominant and cheapest process of producing SAF.
³ PtL fuels are produced from renewable sources other than biomass, low carbon or renewable hydrogen, and nuclear energy (source, pg. 10-11).
