Press
/
May 14, 2026
Carbon Direct releases new analysis of power grid interconnection queues in PJM and ERCOT
White paper finds that while there is an abundance of projects in the queue, the vast majority (60% in ERCOT, 76% in PJM) may not come online for many years – or ever – in key data center markets
NEW YORK, NY — May 14, 2026 — Today, Carbon Direct released a comprehensive analysis of the generation interconnection queues in two of the United States' largest electricity markets: the PJM-operated grid serving the mid-Atlantic and Midwest, and the ERCOT grid serving Texas. The white paper quantifies the scale of the backlog, tracks how projects move through the approval process, and assesses whether the capacity in the queue is actually well positioned to meet the increasing power demand generated by data centers.
Data center demand is arriving on a timeline the US grid cannot match. Since October 2025, more than 10 gigawatts (GW) of new data center projects have been announced in PJM and ERCOT alone, with approximately 30% planned online by 2027.
In 2024, data centers accounted for approximately 4% of total U.S. electricity consumption and are expected to reach 7 to 12% by 2028. Yet, the generation needed to meet that demand is competing for space in a national interconnection queue holding more than 2.2 terawatts of waiting projects, almost twice the capacity of all currently installed U.S. generation. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) targets a timeline of 8–11 months for new power generation to move through the interconnection queue. However, for PJM, it is averaging 40 months, and active projects in data center load-growth zones are waiting 36-48 months (three to four years).
"The interconnection queue is one of the most consequential and least understood bottlenecks in the energy evolution," said Derya Eryilmaz, PhD, Vice President of Power Commercialization at Carbon Direct. "Our analysis shows that timelines are long, conversion rates are shockingly low, and most of what appears in the queue will never actually connect. Given all this, data centers should consider flexible load, battery storage, and reducing grid dependency while grids catch up with surging power demand."
The white paper provides several key findings for data center developers, hyperscalers, and grid planners:
The national queue is vast — and growing. In PJM and ERCOT alone, 1,216 active projects represent 111.6 GW of generation capacity and 64.3 GW of storage.
Wait times far exceed federal targets. The federal target for interconnection agreement (IA) is 8 to 11 months. However, average wait times are 25 months nationally, 20 months in ERCOT, and 40 months in PJM. According to Carbon Direct’s analysis, active projects in data center load growth zones are waiting 36-48 months (three to four years) in both markets.
Most projects never get built. Of ERCOT projects that began screening by 2020, only 40% have reached IA status or become operational, meaning 60% have not, and likely never will. In PJM, only 24% of projects from that same cohort have reached IA status or become operational, meaning 76% have not. For PJM projects submitted from 2018–2020, 65–80% of capacity withdrew from the queue entirely before executing an IA.
Policy is shifting the fuel mix. Following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025, natural gas entries into the Texas grid accelerated by 150% on a monthly basis — from 1.1 to 2.7 gigawatts per month. While total renewable volumes entering the ERCOT queue grew in absolute terms (25.1 GW to 29.3 GW), the monthly rate of new renewable applications fell in both markets and significant renewable withdrawals occurred across PJM and ERCOT.
Gas moves faster, but renewables dominate the queue. Within ERCOT, natural gas projects reach interconnection agreements in an average of 17 months, compared to 27 months for renewables and 23 months for storage. Renewable and storage projects still make up 86% of ERCOT's active queue and 76% of PJM's.
The full report, "AI Meets the Grid: Interconnection Analysis in PJM and ERCOT," is available at Carbon-Direct.com.
About Carbon Direct
Carbon Direct is a trusted energy and climate solutions company that combines world-class scientific expertise, technical rigor, and market insights to help clients achieve their business goals. Our 70+ scientists work closely with our finance, policy, and market experts to design, diligence, and deliver decarbonization solutions across industries. From JPMorganChase to Microsoft, Carbon Direct helps leading companies with carbon dioxide removal, carbon measurement, firm clean power opportunities, and low-carbon energy solutions. To learn more, visit www.carbon-direct.com.
Contact
Carbon Direct Press Office: press@carbon-direct.com