COP30 key takeaways

• Adaptation and resilience finance hit a tipping point, while intergovernmental commitments to adaptation, and implementation of funding for adaptation, crossed key thresholds.

• A renewed focus on tropical forest preservation was revived through novel financial tools provided through the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, complementing progress made on Article 6 at COP27.

• Carbon markets play a prominent role at COP. This year, integration of carbon markets through compliance programs superseded progress on formal negotiations under the Paris Agreement mechanism. 

Setting expectations and agendas: A Global Mutirão

Even before delegates arrived in Belém, Brazil, COP30 was expected to be a defining moment for adaptation finance, natural climate solutions, and carbon markets. First, the nations already experiencing the most severe climate impacts sought to codify commitments for adaptation support and operationalize the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), established at COP28, to facilitate equitable and timely allocation of funds. Additionally, as COP30 was the first COP hosted in the world’s largest terrestrial carbon sink, the Brazilian government sought to catalyze the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), and enhance international financial support for the nations and Indigenous peoples that preserve tropical forests. 

Still, carbon markets remained a prominent theme of the COP30 dialogue as the Brazilian government rolled out the Open Coalition for Carbon Market Integration, with at least 18 member nations, demonstrating diversity in domestic carbon market policies and geography. Concurrently, negotiators worked to maintain and progress emissions trading mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, acknowledged the technical challenges of implementing Article 6.2 (bilateral transactions), and rejected proposals to reopen negotiations on Article 6.4 (the UN-backed Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism). Progress was made at COP30 on adaptation finance, natural climate solutions, carbon markets, and the energy transition. This progress is likely to affect businesses, governments, and civil society for years, as adaptation finance is pooled and allocated, forest preservation mechanisms are strengthened, and national and international carbon markets are linked and operationalized. 

Three key takeaways from COP30

In advance of COP30, the Brazilian government announced the Global Mutirão platform to frame global climate negotiations as rooted in local action. The Global Mutirão was inspired by the Tupi-Guarani concept of mutirão, which calls for self-organization and cooperation in times of crisis. It framed COP30 as a collective effort to promote assistance and cooperation as the global climate crisis worsens. 

Notable decisions and commitments were made at COP30 that demonstrate the trajectory of the climate transition in 2026 and beyond. These centered around adaptation, tropical forest preservation, and global carbon market integration.

Adaptation ambition and commitment  

According to the UN Environment Programme, developing nations are likely to require at least US$310 billion in adaptation funding annually to prepare for the projected impacts of climate change. This is only part of the annual US$1.3 trillion in collective climate finance that the Road from Baku to Belem targets by 2035. However, the trust of Least Developed Countries has largely and justifiably eroded after the commitments developed nations made at COP15, to deliver at least US$100 billion annually in collective climate finance, have fallen significantly short. The Glasgow Pact, an agreement codified at COP26 that called for developed countries to double their international adaptation financial assistance by 2025 (relative to 2019 levels), was expected to be central to discussions at COP30. Last year, at COP29, the adaptation finance gap was largely omitted from the implementation agenda. The US, EU, and Japan offered to help (but did not commit to) raise at least US$300 billion per year in climate finance by 2035—a small portion of the US$1.3 trillion needed in annual collective climate action. Ultimately, the final decision package from COP30 signals a strong emphasis on adaptation aid and commits to tripling adaptation aid to US$120 billion annually and to mobilizing US$1.3 trillion annually for climate action by 2035. 

The Global Mutirão also helped align global capacity to provide financial support for the FRLD, operationalizing the mechanism and establishing a Board to allocate the capital provided to the fund. With an initial solicitation establishing up to US$250 million in adaptation and resilience support, the FDLR now provides an operational mechanism to deploy capital and redress physical climate damages. 

Seeing the forest and the trees

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first discussed the prospect of an international initiative to fund the protection of tropical forests at COP28. COP30’s setting in the Amazon rainforest provided an appropriate opportunity to formally launch and scale the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF). Investor nations will provide an initial collective contribution of US$25 billion, with the intention of unlocking US$100 billion in senior private capital. Distinct from previous efforts to finance forest protection (such as the Warsaw Framework for REDD+), the TFFF will not operate through a philanthropic approach. Instead, it will operate as an investment trust and is projected to deliver up to US$4 billion annually for forest preservation across 74 eligible nations. The TFFF also recognizes the importance of the communities that coexist with tropical forests, mandating that at least 20% of the finance transferred to implementing nations go directly to Indigenous peoples and local communities. 

Prior to COP30, the TFFF had tentative investment commitments from five nations; however, by the end of the Conference, 52 countries and the EU had signed the TFFF Launch Declaration, and the vehicle had secured US$6.7 billion in investment commitments. Many of these commitments included contingencies, including conditions that the TFFF raise at least US$10 billion by the end of 2026 and that certain revisions be made to the financial model. Still, the launch of, and the initial capital committed to, the TFFF signals a global willingness to cooperatively invest in carbon sinks through mechanisms beyond philanthropy or carbon markets. The TFFF represents a new and direct way to preserve biodiversity and natural capital—separately from and complementary to carbon valorization. 

Converging carbon markets 

While formal negotiations on international carbon markets were deprioritized by negotiators, the Brazilian government kick-started the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets. The intention of this coalition is to standardize reporting frameworks and integrate markets among nations with existing compliance policies. The initiative is relatively early in development, but has substantial support with 18 member countries, including China, the EU, the UK, Mexico, Norway, and Rwanda. 

Despite substantial progress on opportunities to standardize domestic carbon markets, COP30 did not demonstrate significant progress in shaping international markets. The negotiations addressed proposed text for Article 6.2, the bilateral mechanism for transferring mitigation outcomes among countries, as well as Article 6.4, which, upon operationalization, will establish a UN-backed carbon crediting mechanism. Given the pervasive inconsistencies identified through the Article 6.2 technical expert review process, negotiators signaled the importance of resolving these emissions accounting discrepancies and pushed for future negotiations to address these concerns. Concerning Article 6.4, negotiators rejected a portfolio of proposals that would have reopened resolved topics, including efforts to formally codify the inclusion of nature-based projects. Collectively, these negotiations indicate that, while there may be concerns regarding the technical consistency of Article 6.2 transactions, negotiators remain committed to supporting the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body, addressing outstanding methodological concerns, and building standards to govern the international carbon market. 

What comes next in 2026

After significant consideration, Türkiye has been named the host of COP31 and will hold the COP Presidency, while Australia has been appointed as President for negotiations. The momentum of international climate diplomacy from COP30 will continue into the year ahead and into COP31. As the President of Negotiations for COP31, Australian Minister of Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, is expected to advocate for a “partnership with the Pacific,” including through a pre-COP31 convening in the Pacific region. With this platform, it’s expected that Minister Bowen will emphasize the importance of adaptation support for Small Island and Developing States, a managed and just transition away from fossil fuels, and climate risks to ocean-based ecosystems and livelihoods. On the road to next year’s COP, we can expect to see many announcements of international climate diplomacy and financial aid taking place, as well as developments on in-progress UNFCCC policies like Article 6. 

Implications for corporate climate strategy

Three key shifts we will continue to watch: rising expectations for community benefits in nature-based projects and alternative mechanisms for financing natural climate solutions, increased attention on the urgency and scale of climate adaptation, and the responsible and interoperable role of UNFCCC-sanctioned and compliance carbon markets. Companies and national governments will need to strengthen their project standards, incorporate adaptation finance, and reinvent the structure of financial instruments for conservation and climate.